PhD Studentship Modelling the responses of marine top predators to fisheries and climate change
Background: The project aims to predict the effects of climate- or fisheries-induced changes in prey availability upon marine predator demography. It seeks to do this by quantifying the fundamental mechanisms that underpin this interaction, namely that energy acquired during foraging must exceed expenditure in order to avert the death of individuals and their offspring. We will use the predator-prey interaction between macaroni penguins and Antarctic krill as a case study. BAS and its collaborators have amassed a unique body of data describing seasonal foraging movements, diving behaviour, energetics, breeding success, body condition and survival of macaroni penguins at Bird Island, South Georgia, along with data on stock size, distribution, age and size distributions of krill in the surrounding waters. The project will use these existing datasets within modern inferential approaches to try and answer questions of fundamental biology.
The student will develop Bayesian state-space models of individual movement and Generalised Additive Mixed models of habitat preference/usage, using existing penguin tracking data. Specific objectives of the modelling exercise will be to estimate seasonal movement parameters relative to marine habitat characteristics and the distance from / time spent away from the breeding colony. They will then develop a state-space model of individual energetics and their impact on demographic rates, conditional on these movement parameters. This would simultaneously track energy gain during foraging behaviour and energy expenditure during all activities and model the resulting changes in body mass of adults and their chicks and their respective risks of starvation mortality. Empirical estimates of adult and chick weights, breeding success and adult survival rates derived from long-term monitoring data will be incorporated into the model. This will then be used to predict effects of vario
us fishery management options and climate change scenarios upon macaroni penguin demography and population trends around South Georgia.
Partner Institutions: The student will be based at BAS HQ in Cambridge, and will be supervised by Dr. Norman Ratcliffe. The co-supervisors will be Jason Matthiopoulos at the University of St. Andrews and Jonathan Green at the University of Liverpool.
Requirements: The student requires at minimum a degree in an ecological or statistical discipline, and an MSc/MRes is desirable. Applicants will need to demonstrate knowledge of advanced modelling approaches. Familiarity with the ecology of seabirds and their interactions with oceanography will be advantageous.
Award: The 2010/11 NERC stipend will be c. ?13,500 pa (the exact amount will be announced by NERC in April). To be eligible for the full award, candidates must hold a British Passport or have been resident in the UK for the last 3 years. The start date is negotiable.
Applications: Applicants should include a cover letter stating why they are interested in this project and the skills they can bring to it, a CV and the e-mail addresses of two referees. Applications and enquiries should be addressed to Dr Norman Ratcliffe, Email: notc@bas.ac.uk. Closing date for applications is 05/03/2010.
Background reading: Aarts et al. 2008. Ecography 31: 140-160; Barlow & Croxall. 2002. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232: 291-304; Green et al. 2009. J. Avian Biol. 40: 529-538; Patterson et al.
2007. TREE 23: 87-94; Stillman et al. 2000. J. Appl. Ecol. 37: 564; Trathan et al. 2006. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 323: 239; Wakefield et al. 2009. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 391:165-182; Waluda et al. 2009. Mar. Biol. 157: 99-112.